For Calvin, everything flows from God's decree in eternity past. That is to say, God, in his infinite wisdom, predestined some to life and some to perdition. Predestination is a very central and controlling theological topic in Calvin and the later development of Reformed theology. For Luther and later Lutherans, election is a cause of our salvation, but not the central controlling cause. As we will see, this entails a recognition of the hidden God vs. the revealed God.
Calvin on Predestination
By predestination we mean the eternal decree of God, by which he determined with himself whatever he wished to happen with regard to every man. All are not created on equal terms, but some are preordained to eternal life, others to eternal damnation; and, accordingly, as each has been created for one or other of these ends, we say that he has been predestinated to life or to death. -Calvin, Institutes, 3.21.5
So, for Calvin, predestination is a central doctrine through which Scripture may be interpreted. The sovereign and all-powerful God determines everything that comes to pass, specifically when it comes to salvation. In Calvin's thought, God has predestined some to eternal life (the elect) and some to eternal damnation (the non-elect).
Therefore, in Reformed Theology, God's decree is the beginning point of theology. Other doctrines regarding salvation flow from this.
Thus, we can see the logical formulation of the famous Reformed acrostic, the TULIP. The formulation goes something like this.
1. God predestined some to life and others to perdition. (Unconditional election)
2. Therefore, the Son only ransoms those given to life. (limited atonement)
3. Therefore, the Spirit only regenerates those whom the Father gave to the Son. (Irresistible grace)
4. Therefore, all of these (the elect) and only these receive grace and are kept until the last day (perseverance of the saints)
In Reformed history, the Remonstrants challenged this, putting forth a free will decision in place of unconditional election, thereby formulating 5 differing points of soteriology. This was debated upon and rejected by the Reformed Synod of Dort (1618-1619), which is where the famous 5 points of Reformed soteriology originated.
The Reformed churches, with their heavy emphasis on God's decree, have also speculated as to the logical (not temporal!) order of God's decrees. Depending on how the decrees are ordered, the emphasis falls on different syllables. For the Reformed, there are multiple theories here: Supralapsarianism, Infralapsarianism, and to a lesser extent, Sublapsarianism (4-point Calvinism where the atonement is unlimited).
All of this sounds very foreign to the Lutheran ear, and rightfully so. The simple reason is that Luther -and Lutheran theology- sees the Reformed manner of systematizing these doctrines is, in a sense, backwards. Certainly, logically speaking, the Reformed will argue that God's decree came first and so on. But here Lutherans appeal to the distinction between the hidden God and the revealed God.
For Lutherans, peering into the hidden God is a fool's errand. Instead, we ought to set our focus squarely on the revealed God, shown to us clearly in the person of Christ, and read the words of Scripture and believe them without trying to cram them into our reasoning. Certainly, Lutherans are not against reason. But we are against reason as means to go over and above clear passages of Scripture. Therefore, when we see a passage such as Titus 2:11, which states "For the grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation for all people," we see in it a clear proclamation by St. Paul of the gratia universalis, or universal grace - something Reformed theology rejects. This grace is given to us in Christ and his work, the fountain of all grace.
We also see sola gratia (grace alone) clearly spoken of in Scripture. This is a safeguard against synergism, which denies sola gratia in the same manner that Reformed theology denies gratia universalis. We see this doctrine very clearly in passages such as Ephesians 2.
All of this is to say, Lutheranism centers theology in Christ. We have a phrase we like to use: All theology is Christology. In short, we start with the revealed God, who is Christ, breaking into history for us.
And Christ, truly and actually, is for you. His atonement is universal and the grace that delivers Christ to you is universal.
We also have quite a robust doctrine of predestination which agrees neither with the Reformed or the Remonstrants (Arminians).
Two other terms that come up very often in this discussion monergism and synergism. Monergism on a theological basis means that God alone saves, by himself. It means one work. This work is God's alone. Monergism is what is affirmed by adherents of sola gratia - Reformed as well as Lutherans. Synergism is a collaboration or a working together. The Remonstrants added a free will choice into salvation, insofar that God saves, but only in response to a person positively deciding to believe in Christ. Rome goes further and posits that justification itself is a result of faith plus works. Both the Remonstrants as well as the Roman Church are synergists.
Often, the doctrine of predestination gets roped into discussions between monergism and synergism, but this is not necessarily so. This is evidenced in Lutheranism to an extent as there are some Lutheran churches out there who teach election intuitu fidei (in view of faith) but are still solid Word and Sacrament monergists.
Whereas the Remonstrants called into question the Reformed doctrine of election on the basis of synergism and opted for a view of intuitu fidei, the Lutheran church is monergist through and through, but it is on an objective, Christ for you temporally in Word and Sacrament basis - whether one holds to election and predestination to salvation only (LCMS, WELS) or one holds to election and predestination intuitu fidei (ELDoNA).
We (Lutherans) see the Reformed as well as the Remonstrants as starting in the wrong place. Ultimately, they end up going round and round about free will choice vs unconditional election. The one denies sola gratia (Remonstrants) and the other denies gratia universalis (Reformed). These two doctrines are clearly revealed in Scripture, so the Lutheran church affirms both of them.
As goes predestination, we affirm it is for salvation only (As an LCMS member and adherent to the whole Book of Concord, I affirm this as well) and is so sure and certain that the gates of hell cannot overcome it. Yet, we start with the revealed Christ, who died for you. And this grace given in Word and Sacrament is also for you. We needn't peer into the hidden God or peer into our own navels to affirm our election. In the first case, one can never be certain of their election by peering into the hidden God. Second, peering into our own navels will either lead to pride or despair.
Likewise, a denial of gratia universalis also will cause doubt, since grace is only for certain persons. Whereas a denial of sola gratia, the synergistic error, will also cause doubt, since grace is made effective by the willing of the person.
However, if Christ died a universal death, and grace is universal to everyone, and we are saved by grace alone, two things jump forth. The first is that we can know with absolute certainty that Christ is for us. The second is that we can be sure about our salvation in that God alone does the saving. This truly is salvation extra nos (outside of us).
In light of these things, our election is so certain that the gates of hell cannot overcome it.
+Pax+
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